Full time✗ Model's call missed
Algeria3–3Austria
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
30%
ALG
31%
Draw●
39%
AUT
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
29.9%
Draw
30.7%
Austria
39.4%
Key Insight
Austria are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Algeria 1.2–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 113%
0 - 012.2%
1 - 010.9%
0 - 27.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
29.9%
Draw
30.7%
Austria
39.4%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 113%
0 - 012.2%
1 - 010.9%
0 - 27.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ALG
0.98
Total
2.15
AUT
1.17
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.0%
Over 2.5 goals36.5%
Under 2.5 goals63.5%
Both teams to score43.8%
ALG clean sheet31.0%
AUT clean sheet37.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 113%
0 - 012.2%
1 - 010.9%
0 - 27.9%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
29.9%
Draw
30.7%
Austria
39.4%
Key Insight
Austria are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Algeria 1.2–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Algeria are projected to generate 1.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Austria are projected for 1.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Algeria.