Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Argentina3–1Jordan
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ARG win
83%
ARG●
13%
Draw
4%
JOR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
85.2%
Draw
11.5%
Jordan
3.4%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 85%, projected to outscore Jordan 2.7–0.4 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.2%
3 - 014.7%
1 - 011.8%
4 - 010%
2 - 16.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+1 pp
85.2%
84.5%
Draw+1 pp
11.5%
10.7%
JOR-1 pp
3.4%
4.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
85.2%
Draw
11.5%
Jordan
3.4%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+1 pp
85.2%
84.5%
Draw+1 pp
11.5%
10.7%
JOR-1 pp
3.4%
4.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.2%
3 - 014.7%
1 - 011.8%
4 - 010%
2 - 16.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ARG
2.62
Total
3.02
JOR
0.41
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.2%
Over 2.5 goals60.1%
Under 2.5 goals39.9%
Both teams to score31.4%
ARG clean sheet66.6%
JOR clean sheet6.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.2%
3 - 014.7%
1 - 011.8%
4 - 010%
2 - 16.6%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
85.2%
Draw
11.5%
Jordan
3.4%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 85%, projected to outscore Jordan 2.7–0.4 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Argentina are projected to generate 2.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Jordan are projected for 0.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Argentina.