Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Argentina2–0Austria
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ARG win
63%
ARG●
24%
Draw
12%
AUT
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
70.9%
Draw
20.3%
Austria
8.9%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore Austria 2.0–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 015.5%
3 - 010.3%
1 - 19.1%
2 - 18.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+5 pp
70.9%
66.3%
Draw-1 pp
20.3%
21.8%
AUT-3 pp
8.9%
11.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
70.9%
Draw
20.3%
Austria
8.9%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+5 pp
70.9%
66.3%
Draw-1 pp
20.3%
21.8%
AUT-3 pp
8.9%
11.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 015.5%
3 - 010.3%
1 - 19.1%
2 - 18.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ARG
1.95
Total
2.50
AUT
0.55
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.6%
Over 2.5 goals46.2%
Under 2.5 goals53.8%
Both teams to score36.7%
ARG clean sheet57.8%
AUT clean sheet13.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 015.5%
3 - 010.3%
1 - 19.1%
2 - 18.5%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
70.9%
Draw
20.3%
Austria
8.9%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore Austria 2.0–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Argentina are projected to generate 2.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Austria are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Argentina.