Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Argentina3–0Algeria
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ARG win
68%
ARG●
22%
Draw
10%
ALG
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
75.1%
Draw
17.9%
Algeria
7%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 75%, projected to outscore Algeria 2.1–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 014.9%
3 - 011.6%
2 - 18.1%
1 - 18%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Match Confidence
91
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+12 pp
75.1%
62.8%
Draw-6 pp
17.9%
23.6%
ALG-6 pp
7.0%
13.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
75.1%
Draw
17.9%
Algeria
7%
Match Confidence
91
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+12 pp
75.1%
62.8%
Draw-6 pp
17.9%
23.6%
ALG-6 pp
7.0%
13.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 014.9%
3 - 011.6%
2 - 18.1%
1 - 18%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ARG
2.11
Total
2.61
ALG
0.50
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.3%
Over 2.5 goals49.1%
Under 2.5 goals50.9%
Both teams to score35.1%
ARG clean sheet60.6%
ALG clean sheet11.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 014.9%
3 - 011.6%
2 - 18.1%
1 - 18%
Match Confidence
91
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
75.1%
Draw
17.9%
Algeria
7%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 75%, projected to outscore Algeria 2.1–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Argentina are projected to generate 2.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Algeria are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Argentina.