Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Norway4–1Iraq
Our pre-kickoff call — result: NOR win
62%
NOR●
24%
Draw
14%
IRQ
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
71.9%
Draw
19.1%
Iraq
9%
Key Insight
Norway are favoured at 72%, projected to outscore Iraq 2.1–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.6%
1 - 013.5%
3 - 010.3%
1 - 18.9%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NOR-6 pp
71.9%
78.3%
Draw+5 pp
19.1%
14.5%
IRQ+2 pp
9.0%
7.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
71.9%
Draw
19.1%
Iraq
9%
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NOR-6 pp
71.9%
78.3%
Draw+5 pp
19.1%
14.5%
IRQ+2 pp
9.0%
7.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.6%
1 - 013.5%
3 - 010.3%
1 - 18.9%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NOR
2.08
Total
2.69
IRQ
0.61
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.6%
Over 2.5 goals51.1%
Under 2.5 goals48.9%
Both teams to score40.4%
NOR clean sheet54.4%
IRQ clean sheet12.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.6%
1 - 013.5%
3 - 010.3%
1 - 18.9%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
71.9%
Draw
19.1%
Iraq
9%
Key Insight
Norway are favoured at 72%, projected to outscore Iraq 2.1–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Norway are projected to generate 2.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Iraq are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Norway.