Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Senegal5–0Iraq
Our pre-kickoff call — result: SEN win
50%
SEN●
29%
Draw
21%
IRQ
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Senegal
55.4%
Draw
27.1%
Iraq
17.5%
Key Insight
Senegal are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore Iraq 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.4%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 012%
0 - 011%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
Senegal Goals
Match Confidence
99
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SEN-23 pp
55.4%
78.5%
Draw+14 pp
27.1%
13.4%
IRQ+9 pp
17.5%
8.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Senegal
55.4%
Draw
27.1%
Iraq
17.5%
Match Confidence
99
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SEN-23 pp
55.4%
78.5%
Draw+14 pp
27.1%
13.4%
IRQ+9 pp
17.5%
8.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.4%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 012%
0 - 011%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
Senegal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
SEN
1.52
Total
2.25
IRQ
0.74
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.4%
Over 2.5 goals39.3%
Under 2.5 goals60.7%
Both teams to score41.4%
SEN clean sheet47.8%
IRQ clean sheet21.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
Senegal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.4%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 012%
0 - 011%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
99
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Senegal
55.4%
Draw
27.1%
Iraq
17.5%
Key Insight
Senegal are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore Iraq 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Senegal are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Iraq are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Senegal.