Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Senegal2–3Norway
Our pre-kickoff call — result: NOR win
22%
SEN
29%
Draw
49%
NOR●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Senegal
21.8%
Draw
27.8%
Norway
50.5%
Key Insight
Norway are favoured at 50%, projected to outscore Senegal 1.5–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.7%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 210.3%
0 - 010.2%
1 - 29%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Senegal Goals
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SEN-12 pp
21.8%
33.6%
Draw-1 pp
27.8%
28.5%
NOR+13 pp
50.5%
38.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Senegal
21.8%
Draw
27.8%
Norway
50.5%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SEN-12 pp
21.8%
33.6%
Draw-1 pp
27.8%
28.5%
NOR+13 pp
50.5%
38.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.7%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 210.3%
0 - 010.2%
1 - 29%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Senegal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
SEN
0.87
Total
2.33
NOR
1.46
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.7%
Over 2.5 goals41.3%
Under 2.5 goals58.7%
Both teams to score45.3%
SEN clean sheet23.1%
NOR clean sheet41.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Senegal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.7%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 210.3%
0 - 010.2%
1 - 29%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Senegal
21.8%
Draw
27.8%
Norway
50.5%
Key Insight
Norway are favoured at 50%, projected to outscore Senegal 1.5–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Senegal are projected to generate 0.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Norway are projected for 1.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Senegal.