Full time✓ Model's call was correct
France3–0Iraq
Our pre-kickoff call — result: FRA win
78%
FRA●
16%
Draw
6%
IRQ
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
81.4%
Draw
13.7%
Iraq
4.9%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 81%, projected to outscore Iraq 2.5–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
3 - 013.2%
1 - 012.1%
4 - 08.4%
2 - 17.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
France Goals
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-8 pp
81.4%
89.3%
Draw+6 pp
13.7%
7.3%
IRQ+2 pp
4.9%
3.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
81.4%
Draw
13.7%
Iraq
4.9%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-8 pp
81.4%
89.3%
Draw+6 pp
13.7%
7.3%
IRQ+2 pp
4.9%
3.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
3 - 013.2%
1 - 012.1%
4 - 08.4%
2 - 17.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
France Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
FRA
2.47
Total
2.95
IRQ
0.49
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.6%
Over 2.5 goals58.0%
Under 2.5 goals42.0%
Both teams to score35.7%
FRA clean sheet61.5%
IRQ clean sheet8.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Iraq Goals
012345+
France Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
3 - 013.2%
1 - 012.1%
4 - 08.4%
2 - 17.6%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
81.4%
Draw
13.7%
Iraq
4.9%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 81%, projected to outscore Iraq 2.5–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
France are projected to generate 2.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Iraq are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours France.