Full time✓ Model's call was correct
France4–1Norway
Our pre-kickoff call — result: FRA win
48%
FRA●
28%
Draw
24%
NOR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
47.6%
Draw
27.8%
Norway
24.6%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Norway 1.4–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
1 - 012.5%
0 - 09.5%
2 - 09.3%
2 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
France Goals
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-25 pp
47.6%
72.7%
Draw+12 pp
27.8%
15.6%
NOR+13 pp
24.6%
11.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
47.6%
Draw
27.8%
Norway
24.6%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-25 pp
47.6%
72.7%
Draw+12 pp
27.8%
15.6%
NOR+13 pp
24.6%
11.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
1 - 012.5%
0 - 09.5%
2 - 09.3%
2 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
France Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
FRA
1.44
Total
2.40
NOR
0.96
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.1%
Over 2.5 goals43.2%
Under 2.5 goals56.8%
Both teams to score47.9%
FRA clean sheet38.1%
NOR clean sheet23.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
France Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
1 - 012.5%
0 - 09.5%
2 - 09.3%
2 - 19%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
47.6%
Draw
27.8%
Norway
24.6%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Norway 1.4–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
France are projected to generate 1.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Norway are projected for 1.0 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours France.