FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jun 11 · 20:00 CST · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
South Korea2–1Czech Republic
Our pre-kickoff call — result: KOR win
49%
KOR●
26%
Draw
25%
CZE
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Korea
45.1%
Draw
29.6%
Czech Republic
25.3%
Key Insight
South Korea are favoured at 45%, projected to outscore Czech Republic 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.8%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 011.5%
0 - 19.4%
2 - 09.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
South Korea Goals
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KOR+8 pp
45.1%
36.8%
Draw-1 pp
29.6%
31.0%
CZE-7 pp
25.3%
32.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Korea
45.1%
Draw
29.6%
Czech Republic
25.3%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KOR+8 pp
45.1%
36.8%
Draw-1 pp
29.6%
31.0%
CZE-7 pp
25.3%
32.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.8%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 011.5%
0 - 19.4%
2 - 09.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
South Korea Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
KOR
1.30
Total
2.21
CZE
0.91
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.8%
Over 2.5 goals38.0%
Under 2.5 goals62.0%
Both teams to score44.1%
KOR clean sheet40.3%
CZE clean sheet27.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
South Korea Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.8%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 011.5%
0 - 19.4%
2 - 09.2%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Korea
45.1%
Draw
29.6%
Czech Republic
25.3%
Key Insight
South Korea are favoured at 45%, projected to outscore Czech Republic 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
South Korea are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Czech Republic are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours South Korea.