Full time✓ Model's call was correct
France3–1Senegal
Our pre-kickoff call — result: FRA win
58%
FRA●
26%
Draw
16%
SEN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
62.3%
Draw
23.9%
Senegal
13.8%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Senegal 1.8–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.7%
2 - 013.2%
1 - 111.1%
2 - 19.2%
0 - 09.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
France Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-3 pp
62.3%
65.4%
Draw+2 pp
23.9%
21.6%
SEN+1 pp
13.8%
13.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
62.3%
Draw
23.9%
Senegal
13.8%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-3 pp
62.3%
65.4%
Draw+2 pp
23.9%
21.6%
SEN+1 pp
13.8%
13.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.7%
2 - 013.2%
1 - 111.1%
2 - 19.2%
0 - 09.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
France Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
FRA
1.74
Total
2.44
SEN
0.70
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.7%
Over 2.5 goals44.3%
Under 2.5 goals55.7%
Both teams to score42.0%
FRA clean sheet49.8%
SEN clean sheet17.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
France Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.7%
2 - 013.2%
1 - 111.1%
2 - 19.2%
0 - 09.1%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
62.3%
Draw
23.9%
Senegal
13.8%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Senegal 1.8–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
France are projected to generate 1.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Senegal are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours France.