FIFA World Cup 2026Sun Jun 21 · 18:00 EDT · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Uruguay2–2Cabo Verde
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
71%
URU
17%
Draw●
11%
CPV
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Uruguay
68.9%
Draw
18.5%
Cabo Verde
12.5%
Key Insight
Uruguay are favoured at 69%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 2.3–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.7%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 011.3%
1 - 18.2%
0 - 07.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Uruguay Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 84-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
URU-1 pp
68.9%
70.0%
Draw-2 pp
18.5%
20.4%
CPV+3 pp
12.5%
9.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Uruguay
68.9%
Draw
18.5%
Cabo Verde
12.5%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 84-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
URU-1 pp
68.9%
70.0%
Draw-2 pp
18.5%
20.4%
CPV+3 pp
12.5%
9.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.7%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 011.3%
1 - 18.2%
0 - 07.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Uruguay Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
URU
2.04
Total
2.60
CPV
0.56
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.7%
Over 2.5 goals49.0%
Under 2.5 goals51.0%
Both teams to score34.5%
URU clean sheet57.6%
CPV clean sheet15.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Uruguay Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.7%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 011.3%
1 - 18.2%
0 - 07.9%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 84-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Uruguay
68.9%
Draw
18.5%
Cabo Verde
12.5%
Key Insight
Uruguay are favoured at 69%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 2.3–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Uruguay are projected to generate 2.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Cabo Verde are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Uruguay.