FIFA World Cup 2026Fri Jun 26 · 19:00 CDT · NRG Stadium, Houston
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Saudi Arabia0–0Cabo Verde
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
54%
KSA
22%
Draw●
24%
CPV
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
52.8%
Draw
22.8%
Cabo Verde
24.4%
Key Insight
Saudi Arabia are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
2 - 011.5%
1 - 110.3%
0 - 110.2%
0 - 09.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 94-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KSA+17 pp
52.8%
36.1%
Draw-5 pp
22.8%
27.4%
CPV-12 pp
24.4%
36.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
52.8%
Draw
22.8%
Cabo Verde
24.4%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 94-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KSA+17 pp
52.8%
36.1%
Draw-5 pp
22.8%
27.4%
CPV-12 pp
24.4%
36.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
2 - 011.5%
1 - 110.3%
0 - 110.2%
0 - 09.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
KSA
1.46
Total
2.27
CPV
0.81
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.6%
Over 2.5 goals40.2%
Under 2.5 goals59.8%
Both teams to score40.3%
KSA clean sheet44.5%
CPV clean sheet24.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
2 - 011.5%
1 - 110.3%
0 - 110.2%
0 - 09.3%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 94-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
52.8%
Draw
22.8%
Cabo Verde
24.4%
Key Insight
Saudi Arabia are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Saudi Arabia are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Cabo Verde are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Saudi Arabia.