FIFA World Cup 2026Fri Jun 26 · 19:00 CDT · NRG Stadium, Houston
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Saudi Arabia0–0Cabo Verde
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
54%
KSA
22%
Draw●
24%
CPV
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
52.5%
Draw
22.5%
Cabo Verde
25.1%
Key Insight
Saudi Arabia are favoured at 52%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.5%
2 - 011.4%
0 - 110.4%
1 - 110.2%
0 - 09.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 95-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KSA+16 pp
52.5%
36.1%
Draw-5 pp
22.5%
27.4%
CPV-11 pp
25.1%
36.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
52.5%
Draw
22.5%
Cabo Verde
25.1%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 95-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KSA+16 pp
52.5%
36.1%
Draw-5 pp
22.5%
27.4%
CPV-11 pp
25.1%
36.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.5%
2 - 011.4%
0 - 110.4%
1 - 110.2%
0 - 09.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
KSA
1.45
Total
2.28
CPV
0.82
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.5%
Over 2.5 goals40.4%
Under 2.5 goals59.6%
Both teams to score40.4%
KSA clean sheet44.1%
CPV clean sheet24.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.5%
2 - 011.4%
0 - 110.4%
1 - 110.2%
0 - 09.1%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 95-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
52.5%
Draw
22.5%
Cabo Verde
25.1%
Key Insight
Saudi Arabia are favoured at 52%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Saudi Arabia are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Cabo Verde are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Saudi Arabia.