FIFA World Cup 2026Mon Jun 15 · 18:00 EDT · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Saudi Arabia1–1Uruguay
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
12%
KSA
24%
Draw●
65%
URU
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
14.8%
Draw
26.4%
Uruguay
58.8%
Key Insight
Uruguay are favoured at 59%, projected to outscore Saudi Arabia 1.6–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.7%
0 - 213.3%
1 - 111.7%
0 - 011.5%
1 - 28.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Uruguay Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KSA+3 pp
14.8%
12.3%
Draw+3 pp
26.4%
23.1%
URU-6 pp
58.8%
64.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
14.8%
Draw
26.4%
Uruguay
58.8%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KSA+3 pp
14.8%
12.3%
Draw+3 pp
26.4%
23.1%
URU-6 pp
58.8%
64.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.7%
0 - 213.3%
1 - 111.7%
0 - 011.5%
1 - 28.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Uruguay Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
KSA
0.65
Total
2.20
URU
1.55
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.7%
Over 2.5 goals37.9%
Under 2.5 goals62.1%
Both teams to score38.2%
KSA clean sheet21.0%
URU clean sheet52.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Uruguay Goals
012345+
Saudi Arabia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.7%
0 - 213.3%
1 - 111.7%
0 - 011.5%
1 - 28.6%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Saudi Arabia
14.8%
Draw
26.4%
Uruguay
58.8%
Key Insight
Uruguay are favoured at 59%, projected to outscore Saudi Arabia 1.6–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Saudi Arabia are projected to generate 0.6 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Uruguay are projected for 1.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Saudi Arabia.