FIFA World Cup 2026Mon Jun 15 · 12:00 EDT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Spain0–0Cabo Verde
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
85%
ESP
10%
Draw●
5%
CPV
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
88%
Draw
8.8%
Cabo Verde
3.2%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 88%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 2.8–0.2 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 018.5%
3 - 017.2%
1 - 013.1%
4 - 012.1%
0 - 04.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 54-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP-1 pp
88.0%
88.6%
Draw+1 pp
8.8%
7.5%
CPV-1 pp
3.2%
3.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
88%
Draw
8.8%
Cabo Verde
3.2%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 54-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP-1 pp
88.0%
88.6%
Draw+1 pp
8.8%
7.5%
CPV-1 pp
3.2%
3.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 018.5%
3 - 017.2%
1 - 013.1%
4 - 012.1%
0 - 04.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ESP
2.66
Total
2.91
CPV
0.26
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline18.5%
Over 2.5 goals57.9%
Under 2.5 goals42.1%
Both teams to score20.1%
ESP clean sheet77.6%
CPV clean sheet7.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 018.5%
3 - 017.2%
1 - 013.1%
4 - 012.1%
0 - 04.9%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 54-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
88%
Draw
8.8%
Cabo Verde
3.2%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 88%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 2.8–0.2 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Spain are projected to generate 2.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Cabo Verde are projected for 0.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Spain.