Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Spain1–0Uruguay
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ESP win
61%
ESP●
25%
Draw
14%
URU
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
72.7%
Draw
19.4%
Uruguay
7.8%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 73%, projected to outscore Uruguay 2.0–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 015.8%
3 - 011%
1 - 18.6%
0 - 08.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Uruguay Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP+15 pp
72.7%
58.1%
Draw-7 pp
19.4%
26.8%
URU-7 pp
7.8%
15.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
72.7%
Draw
19.4%
Uruguay
7.8%
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP+15 pp
72.7%
58.1%
Draw-7 pp
19.4%
26.8%
URU-7 pp
7.8%
15.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 015.8%
3 - 011%
1 - 18.6%
0 - 08.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Uruguay Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ESP
1.99
Total
2.50
URU
0.50
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.3%
Over 2.5 goals46.1%
Under 2.5 goals53.9%
Both teams to score34.7%
ESP clean sheet60.3%
URU clean sheet13.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Uruguay Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 015.8%
3 - 011%
1 - 18.6%
0 - 08.4%
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
72.7%
Draw
19.4%
Uruguay
7.8%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 73%, projected to outscore Uruguay 2.0–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Spain are projected to generate 2.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Uruguay are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Spain.