FIFA World Cup 2026Sun Jun 21 · 12:00 EDT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Spain4–0Saudi Arabia
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ESP win
84%
ESP●
12%
Draw
4%
KSA
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
91%
Draw
7.2%
Saudi Arabia
1.7%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 91%, projected to outscore Saudi Arabia 2.8–0.3 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.6%
3 - 016.4%
1 - 012.5%
4 - 011.5%
2 - 16%
Scoreline Distribution
Saudi Arabia Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 6-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP+4 pp
91.0%
87.2%
Draw-1 pp
7.2%
8.7%
KSA-2 pp
1.7%
4.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
91%
Draw
7.2%
Saudi Arabia
1.7%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 6-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP+4 pp
91.0%
87.2%
Draw-1 pp
7.2%
8.7%
KSA-2 pp
1.7%
4.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.6%
3 - 016.4%
1 - 012.5%
4 - 011.5%
2 - 16%
Scoreline Distribution
Saudi Arabia Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ESP
2.78
Total
3.10
KSA
0.32
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline17.6%
Over 2.5 goals62.4%
Under 2.5 goals37.6%
Both teams to score26.3%
ESP clean sheet72.6%
KSA clean sheet4.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Saudi Arabia Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.6%
3 - 016.4%
1 - 012.5%
4 - 011.5%
2 - 16%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 6-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
91%
Draw
7.2%
Saudi Arabia
1.7%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 91%, projected to outscore Saudi Arabia 2.8–0.3 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Spain are projected to generate 2.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Saudi Arabia are projected for 0.3 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Spain.