FIFA World Cup 2026Mon Jun 15 · 18:00 PDT · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Full time✗ Model's call missed
New Zealand2–2Iran
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
20%
NZL
28%
Draw●
52%
IRN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
New Zealand
18.2%
Draw
26%
Iran
55.7%
Key Insight
Iran are favoured at 56%, projected to outscore New Zealand 1.6–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114%
1 - 112.2%
0 - 211.5%
0 - 09.5%
1 - 29.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
New Zealand Goals
Match Confidence
70
/100
High
Based on a 21-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NZL-2 pp
18.2%
20.1%
Draw-2 pp
26.0%
27.8%
IRN+4 pp
55.7%
52.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
New Zealand
18.2%
Draw
26%
Iran
55.7%
Match Confidence
70
/100
High
Based on a 21-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NZL-2 pp
18.2%
20.1%
Draw-2 pp
26.0%
27.8%
IRN+4 pp
55.7%
52.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114%
1 - 112.2%
0 - 211.5%
0 - 09.5%
1 - 29.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
New Zealand Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NZL
0.80
Total
2.40
IRN
1.59
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.0%
Over 2.5 goals43.2%
Under 2.5 goals56.8%
Both teams to score44.6%
NZL clean sheet20.2%
IRN clean sheet44.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
New Zealand Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114%
1 - 112.2%
0 - 211.5%
0 - 09.5%
1 - 29.2%
Match Confidence
70
/100
High
Based on a 21-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
New Zealand
18.2%
Draw
26%
Iran
55.7%
Key Insight
Iran are favoured at 56%, projected to outscore New Zealand 1.6–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
New Zealand are projected to generate 0.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Iran are projected for 1.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours New Zealand.