Full time✗ Model's call missed
Egypt1–1Iran
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
29%
EGY
31%
Draw●
40%
IRN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Egypt
29.8%
Draw
31.4%
Iran
38.8%
Key Insight
Iran are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Egypt 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 013.1%
1 - 011.3%
0 - 27.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
Egypt Goals
Match Confidence
99
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
EGY-8 pp
29.8%
37.7%
Draw-3 pp
31.4%
34.5%
IRN+11 pp
38.8%
27.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Egypt
29.8%
Draw
31.4%
Iran
38.8%
Match Confidence
99
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
EGY-8 pp
29.8%
37.7%
Draw-3 pp
31.4%
34.5%
IRN+11 pp
38.8%
27.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 013.1%
1 - 011.3%
0 - 27.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
Egypt Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
EGY
0.95
Total
2.08
IRN
1.13
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals34.4%
Under 2.5 goals65.6%
Both teams to score42.2%
EGY clean sheet32.4%
IRN clean sheet38.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
Egypt Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 013.1%
1 - 011.3%
0 - 27.9%
Match Confidence
99
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Egypt
29.8%
Draw
31.4%
Iran
38.8%
Key Insight
Iran are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Egypt 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Egypt are projected to generate 1.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Iran are projected for 1.1 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Egypt.