FIFA World Cup 2026Sun Jun 21 · 18:00 PDT · BC Place, Vancouver
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Egypt3–1New Zealand
Our pre-kickoff call — result: EGY win
40%
EGY●
31%
Draw
29%
NZL
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Egypt
50.4%
Draw
27.9%
New Zealand
21.7%
Key Insight
Egypt are favoured at 50%, projected to outscore New Zealand 1.5–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 010.4%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
New Zealand Goals
012345+
Egypt Goals
Match Confidence
69
/100
High
Based on a 21-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
EGY-8 pp
50.4%
58.4%
Draw+3 pp
27.9%
25.0%
NZL+5 pp
21.7%
16.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Egypt
50.4%
Draw
27.9%
New Zealand
21.7%
Match Confidence
69
/100
High
Based on a 21-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
EGY-8 pp
50.4%
58.4%
Draw+3 pp
27.9%
25.0%
NZL+5 pp
21.7%
16.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 010.4%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
New Zealand Goals
012345+
Egypt Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
EGY
1.44
Total
2.30
NZL
0.86
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals40.5%
Under 2.5 goals59.5%
Both teams to score44.6%
EGY clean sheet42.3%
NZL clean sheet23.5%
Scoreline Distribution
New Zealand Goals
012345+
Egypt Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 010.4%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
69
/100
High
Based on a 21-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Egypt
50.4%
Draw
27.9%
New Zealand
21.7%
Key Insight
Egypt are favoured at 50%, projected to outscore New Zealand 1.5–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Egypt are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
New Zealand are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Egypt.