FIFA World Cup 2026Wed Jun 24 · 19:00 CST · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Full time✗ Model's call missed
South Korea0–1South Africa
Our pre-kickoff call — result: RSA win
61%
KOR
25%
Draw
14%
RSA●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Korea
52.3%
Draw
28.3%
South Africa
19.4%
Key Insight
South Korea are favoured at 52%, projected to outscore South Africa 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.4%
1 - 112.8%
0 - 011.6%
2 - 011.3%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
South Africa Goals
012345+
South Korea Goals
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KOR-6 pp
52.3%
57.9%
Draw+3 pp
28.3%
25.0%
RSA+2 pp
19.4%
17.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Korea
52.3%
Draw
28.3%
South Africa
19.4%
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
KOR-6 pp
52.3%
57.9%
Draw+3 pp
28.3%
25.0%
RSA+2 pp
19.4%
17.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.4%
1 - 112.8%
0 - 011.6%
2 - 011.3%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
South Africa Goals
012345+
South Korea Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
KOR
1.43
Total
2.20
RSA
0.77
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.4%
Over 2.5 goals37.7%
Under 2.5 goals62.3%
Both teams to score41.4%
KOR clean sheet46.4%
RSA clean sheet23.8%
Scoreline Distribution
South Africa Goals
012345+
South Korea Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.4%
1 - 112.8%
0 - 011.6%
2 - 011.3%
2 - 18.7%
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Korea
52.3%
Draw
28.3%
South Africa
19.4%
Key Insight
South Korea are favoured at 52%, projected to outscore South Africa 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
South Korea are projected to generate 1.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
South Africa are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours South Korea.