Full time✗ Model's call missed
Belgium0–0Iran
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
42%
BEL
31%
Draw●
28%
IRN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
49.3%
Draw
28.6%
Iran
22%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 49%, projected to outscore Iran 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 011.2%
2 - 010.3%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BEL-19 pp
49.3%
68.7%
Draw+9 pp
28.6%
20.1%
IRN+11 pp
22.0%
11.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
49.3%
Draw
28.6%
Iran
22%
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BEL-19 pp
49.3%
68.7%
Draw+9 pp
28.6%
20.1%
IRN+11 pp
22.0%
11.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 011.2%
2 - 010.3%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BEL
1.39
Total
2.24
IRN
0.84
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.3%
Over 2.5 goals38.8%
Under 2.5 goals61.2%
Both teams to score43.5%
BEL clean sheet43.0%
IRN clean sheet24.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Iran Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 011.2%
2 - 010.3%
2 - 18.7%
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
49.3%
Draw
28.6%
Iran
22%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 49%, projected to outscore Iran 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Belgium are projected to generate 1.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Iran are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Belgium.