FIFA World Cup 2026Fri Jun 26 · 20:00 PDT · BC Place, Vancouver
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Belgium5–1New Zealand
Our pre-kickoff call — result: BEL win
61%
BEL●
25%
Draw
15%
NZL
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
71.2%
Draw
19.2%
New Zealand
9.7%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore New Zealand 2.1–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.1%
1 - 013%
3 - 010%
2 - 19%
1 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
New Zealand Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BEL-10 pp
71.2%
80.9%
Draw+7 pp
19.2%
12.1%
NZL+3 pp
9.7%
7.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
71.2%
Draw
19.2%
New Zealand
9.7%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BEL-10 pp
71.2%
80.9%
Draw+7 pp
19.2%
12.1%
NZL+3 pp
9.7%
7.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.1%
1 - 013%
3 - 010%
2 - 19%
1 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
New Zealand Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BEL
2.09
Total
2.74
NZL
0.64
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals52.2%
Under 2.5 goals47.8%
Both teams to score42.1%
BEL clean sheet52.5%
NZL clean sheet12.0%
Scoreline Distribution
New Zealand Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.1%
1 - 013%
3 - 010%
2 - 19%
1 - 19%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
71.2%
Draw
19.2%
New Zealand
9.7%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore New Zealand 2.1–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Belgium are projected to generate 2.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
New Zealand are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Belgium.