Full time✗ Model's call missed
Belgium1–1Egypt
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
53%
BEL
28%
Draw●
19%
EGY
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
54%
Draw
27.5%
Egypt
18.5%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 54%, projected to outscore Egypt 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.1%
1 - 112.5%
2 - 011.6%
0 - 011%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BEL-10 pp
54.0%
63.9%
Draw+5 pp
27.5%
22.5%
EGY+5 pp
18.5%
13.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
54%
Draw
27.5%
Egypt
18.5%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BEL-10 pp
54.0%
63.9%
Draw+5 pp
27.5%
22.5%
EGY+5 pp
18.5%
13.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.1%
1 - 112.5%
2 - 011.6%
0 - 011%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BEL
1.49
Total
2.25
EGY
0.76
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.1%
Over 2.5 goals39.2%
Under 2.5 goals60.8%
Both teams to score41.9%
BEL clean sheet46.6%
EGY clean sheet22.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.1%
1 - 112.5%
2 - 011.6%
0 - 011%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
54%
Draw
27.5%
Egypt
18.5%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 54%, projected to outscore Egypt 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Belgium are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Egypt are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Belgium.