Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Tunisia1–5Sweden
Our pre-kickoff call — result: SWE win
32%
TUN
31%
Draw
38%
SWE●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Tunisia
23.5%
Draw
28.2%
Sweden
48.2%
Key Insight
Sweden are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Tunisia 1.4–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 010.2%
0 - 29.7%
1 - 28.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Tunisia Goals
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
TUN+3 pp
23.5%
20.8%
Draw0 pp
28.2%
28.3%
SWE-3 pp
48.2%
50.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Tunisia
23.5%
Draw
28.2%
Sweden
48.2%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
TUN+3 pp
23.5%
20.8%
Draw0 pp
28.2%
28.3%
SWE-3 pp
48.2%
50.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 010.2%
0 - 29.7%
1 - 28.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Tunisia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
TUN
0.91
Total
2.33
SWE
1.42
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.3%
Over 2.5 goals41.2%
Under 2.5 goals58.8%
Both teams to score45.9%
TUN clean sheet24.1%
SWE clean sheet40.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Tunisia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 010.2%
0 - 29.7%
1 - 28.9%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Tunisia
23.5%
Draw
28.2%
Sweden
48.2%
Key Insight
Sweden are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Tunisia 1.4–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Tunisia are projected to generate 0.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Sweden are projected for 1.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Tunisia.