Full time✗ Model's call missed
Japan1–1Sweden
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
63%
JPN
23%
Draw●
13%
SWE
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Japan
58.1%
Draw
25.2%
Sweden
16.7%
Key Insight
Japan are favoured at 58%, projected to outscore Sweden 1.7–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
2 - 012%
1 - 111.8%
2 - 19.4%
0 - 09.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Japan Goals
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
JPN+15 pp
58.1%
42.9%
Draw-3 pp
25.2%
28.0%
SWE-12 pp
16.7%
29.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Japan
58.1%
Draw
25.2%
Sweden
16.7%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
JPN+15 pp
58.1%
42.9%
Draw-3 pp
25.2%
28.0%
SWE-12 pp
16.7%
29.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
2 - 012%
1 - 111.8%
2 - 19.4%
0 - 09.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Japan Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
JPN
1.66
Total
2.44
SWE
0.78
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals44.4%
Under 2.5 goals55.6%
Both teams to score44.5%
JPN clean sheet45.8%
SWE clean sheet18.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Japan Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
2 - 012%
1 - 111.8%
2 - 19.4%
0 - 09.1%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Japan
58.1%
Draw
25.2%
Sweden
16.7%
Key Insight
Japan are favoured at 58%, projected to outscore Sweden 1.7–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Japan are projected to generate 1.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Sweden are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Japan.