Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Japan4–0Tunisia
Our pre-kickoff call — result: JPN win
69%
JPN●
21%
Draw
10%
TUN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Japan
69.4%
Draw
21%
Tunisia
9.7%
Key Insight
Japan are favoured at 69%, projected to outscore Tunisia 1.9–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.2%
2 - 015.1%
3 - 09.8%
1 - 19.5%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Tunisia Goals
012345+
Japan Goals
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
JPN+2 pp
69.4%
67.8%
Draw0 pp
21.0%
21.0%
TUN-1 pp
9.7%
11.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Japan
69.4%
Draw
21%
Tunisia
9.7%
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
JPN+2 pp
69.4%
67.8%
Draw0 pp
21.0%
21.0%
TUN-1 pp
9.7%
11.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.2%
2 - 015.1%
3 - 09.8%
1 - 19.5%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Tunisia Goals
012345+
Japan Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
JPN
1.92
Total
2.50
TUN
0.58
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.2%
Over 2.5 goals46.1%
Under 2.5 goals53.9%
Both teams to score38.1%
JPN clean sheet56.0%
TUN clean sheet14.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Tunisia Goals
012345+
Japan Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.2%
2 - 015.1%
3 - 09.8%
1 - 19.5%
2 - 18.7%
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Japan
69.4%
Draw
21%
Tunisia
9.7%
Key Insight
Japan are favoured at 69%, projected to outscore Tunisia 1.9–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Japan are projected to generate 1.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Tunisia are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Japan.