FIFA World Cup 2026Sat Jun 20 · 12:00 CDT · NRG Stadium, Houston
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Netherlands5–1Sweden
Our pre-kickoff call — result: NED win
59%
NED●
25%
Draw
17%
SWE
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
65%
Draw
22%
Sweden
13%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 65%, projected to outscore Sweden 1.9–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.1%
2 - 012.9%
1 - 110.4%
2 - 19.5%
3 - 08.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED+8 pp
65.0%
56.8%
Draw-2 pp
22.0%
23.8%
SWE-6 pp
13.0%
19.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
65%
Draw
22%
Sweden
13%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED+8 pp
65.0%
56.8%
Draw-2 pp
22.0%
23.8%
SWE-6 pp
13.0%
19.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.1%
2 - 012.9%
1 - 110.4%
2 - 19.5%
3 - 08.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NED
1.91
Total
2.64
SWE
0.74
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.1%
Over 2.5 goals49.6%
Under 2.5 goals50.4%
Both teams to score44.9%
NED clean sheet47.9%
SWE clean sheet14.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.1%
2 - 012.9%
1 - 110.4%
2 - 19.5%
3 - 08.3%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
65%
Draw
22%
Sweden
13%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 65%, projected to outscore Sweden 1.9–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Netherlands are projected to generate 1.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Sweden are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Netherlands.