FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jun 25 · 18:00 CDT · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Netherlands3–1Tunisia
Our pre-kickoff call — result: NED win
75%
NED●
18%
Draw
8%
TUN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
75.6%
Draw
17.3%
Tunisia
7.2%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 76%, projected to outscore Tunisia 2.2–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.4%
1 - 013.5%
3 - 011.5%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 18%
Scoreline Distribution
Tunisia Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED-11 pp
75.6%
86.9%
Draw+8 pp
17.3%
9.3%
TUN+3 pp
7.2%
3.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
75.6%
Draw
17.3%
Tunisia
7.2%
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED-11 pp
75.6%
86.9%
Draw+8 pp
17.3%
9.3%
TUN+3 pp
7.2%
3.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.4%
1 - 013.5%
3 - 011.5%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 18%
Scoreline Distribution
Tunisia Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NED
2.19
Total
2.74
TUN
0.55
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.4%
Over 2.5 goals52.5%
Under 2.5 goals47.5%
Both teams to score37.9%
NED clean sheet57.9%
TUN clean sheet10.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Tunisia Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.4%
1 - 013.5%
3 - 011.5%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 18%
Match Confidence
96
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
75.6%
Draw
17.3%
Tunisia
7.2%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 76%, projected to outscore Tunisia 2.2–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Netherlands are projected to generate 2.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Tunisia are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Netherlands.