FIFA World Cup 2026Sun Jun 14 · 15:00 CDT · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Netherlands2–2Japan
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
35%
NED
31%
Draw●
34%
JPN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
40.5%
Draw
30%
Japan
29.5%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 40%, projected to outscore Japan 1.2–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
1 - 012.7%
0 - 011.4%
0 - 110.3%
2 - 18%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED-7 pp
40.5%
48.0%
Draw+3 pp
30.0%
27.4%
JPN+5 pp
29.5%
24.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
40.5%
Draw
30%
Japan
29.5%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED-7 pp
40.5%
48.0%
Draw+3 pp
30.0%
27.4%
JPN+5 pp
29.5%
24.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
1 - 012.7%
0 - 011.4%
0 - 110.3%
2 - 18%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NED
1.22
Total
2.22
JPN
1.00
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals38.3%
Under 2.5 goals61.7%
Both teams to score45.3%
NED clean sheet36.7%
JPN clean sheet29.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
1 - 012.7%
0 - 011.4%
0 - 110.3%
2 - 18%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
40.5%
Draw
30%
Japan
29.5%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 40%, projected to outscore Japan 1.2–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Netherlands are projected to generate 1.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Japan are projected for 1.0 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Netherlands.