Full time✗ Model's call missed
Ecuador0–0Curacao
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
72%
ECU
17%
Draw●
11%
CUW
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ecuador
70.9%
Draw
18.2%
Curacao
11%
Key Insight
Ecuador are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore Curacao 2.4–0.4 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.2%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 012.1%
0 - 08.2%
1 - 17.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Ecuador Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 82-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ECU-12 pp
70.9%
83.1%
Draw+7 pp
18.2%
10.8%
CUW+5 pp
11.0%
6.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ecuador
70.9%
Draw
18.2%
Curacao
11%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 82-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ECU-12 pp
70.9%
83.1%
Draw+7 pp
18.2%
10.8%
CUW+5 pp
11.0%
6.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.2%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 012.1%
0 - 08.2%
1 - 17.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Ecuador Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ECU
2.10
Total
2.61
CUW
0.51
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.2%
Over 2.5 goals49.3%
Under 2.5 goals50.7%
Both teams to score32.2%
ECU clean sheet60.7%
CUW clean sheet15.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Ecuador Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.2%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 012.1%
0 - 08.2%
1 - 17.9%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 82-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ecuador
70.9%
Draw
18.2%
Curacao
11%
Key Insight
Ecuador are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore Curacao 2.4–0.4 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Ecuador are projected to generate 2.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Curacao are projected for 0.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Ecuador.