FIFA World Cup 2026Wed Jun 24 · 19:00 CST · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Mexico3–0Czech Republic
Our pre-kickoff call — result: MEX win
68%
MEX●
21%
Draw
11%
CZE
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
70.7%
Draw
19.3%
Czech Republic
10%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore Czech Republic 2.1–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 013.8%
1 - 012.7%
3 - 09.8%
2 - 19.2%
1 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+15 pp
70.7%
55.8%
Draw-4 pp
19.3%
23.7%
CZE-10 pp
10.0%
20.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
70.7%
Draw
19.3%
Czech Republic
10%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+15 pp
70.7%
55.8%
Draw-4 pp
19.3%
23.7%
CZE-10 pp
10.0%
20.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 013.8%
1 - 012.7%
3 - 09.8%
2 - 19.2%
1 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MEX
2.09
Total
2.76
CZE
0.66
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.8%
Over 2.5 goals52.7%
Under 2.5 goals47.3%
Both teams to score43.1%
MEX clean sheet51.4%
CZE clean sheet12.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 013.8%
1 - 012.7%
3 - 09.8%
2 - 19.2%
1 - 19.1%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
70.7%
Draw
19.3%
Czech Republic
10%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore Czech Republic 2.1–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Mexico are projected to generate 2.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Czech Republic are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Mexico.