FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jun 11 · 13:00 CST · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Mexico2–0South Africa
Our pre-kickoff call — result: MEX win
49%
MEX●
28%
Draw
23%
RSA
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
76.9%
Draw
16.3%
South Africa
6.9%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 77%, projected to outscore South Africa 2.3–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 011.7%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 17.6%
Scoreline Distribution
South Africa Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+9 pp
76.9%
68.2%
Draw-5 pp
16.3%
20.9%
RSA-4 pp
6.9%
10.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
76.9%
Draw
16.3%
South Africa
6.9%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+9 pp
76.9%
68.2%
Draw-5 pp
16.3%
20.9%
RSA-4 pp
6.9%
10.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 011.7%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 17.6%
Scoreline Distribution
South Africa Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MEX
2.29
Total
2.85
RSA
0.56
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.0%
Over 2.5 goals55.4%
Under 2.5 goals44.6%
Both teams to score39.2%
MEX clean sheet57.0%
RSA clean sheet9.7%
Scoreline Distribution
South Africa Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015%
1 - 012.6%
3 - 011.7%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 17.6%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
76.9%
Draw
16.3%
South Africa
6.9%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 77%, projected to outscore South Africa 2.3–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Mexico are projected to generate 2.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
South Africa are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Mexico.