FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jun 25 · 16:00 EDT · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Ivory Coast2–0Curacao
Our pre-kickoff call — result: CIV win
61%
CIV●
21%
Draw
18%
CUW
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
62.2%
Draw
20.6%
Curacao
17.2%
Key Insight
Ivory Coast are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Curacao 1.9–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
2 - 013.7%
1 - 19.3%
3 - 08.8%
0 - 08.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 89-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CIV-19 pp
62.2%
81.7%
Draw+9 pp
20.6%
11.8%
CUW+11 pp
17.2%
6.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
62.2%
Draw
20.6%
Curacao
17.2%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 89-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CIV-19 pp
62.2%
81.7%
Draw+9 pp
20.6%
11.8%
CUW+11 pp
17.2%
6.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
2 - 013.7%
1 - 19.3%
3 - 08.8%
0 - 08.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CIV
1.76
Total
2.43
CUW
0.67
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals44.5%
Under 2.5 goals55.5%
Both teams to score37.8%
CIV clean sheet51.6%
CUW clean sheet19.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
2 - 013.7%
1 - 19.3%
3 - 08.8%
0 - 08.5%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 89-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
62.2%
Draw
20.6%
Curacao
17.2%
Key Insight
Ivory Coast are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Curacao 1.9–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Ivory Coast are projected to generate 1.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Curacao are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Ivory Coast.