FIFA World Cup 2026Sun Jun 14 · 19:00 EDT · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Ivory Coast1–0Ecuador
Our pre-kickoff call — result: CIV win
15%
CIV●
27%
Draw
58%
ECU
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
21.2%
Draw
30.8%
Ecuador
48%
Key Insight
Ecuador are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Ivory Coast 1.3–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.7%
0 - 014.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 210.7%
1 - 09.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Match Confidence
82
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CIV-8 pp
21.2%
29.3%
Draw-2 pp
30.8%
32.5%
ECU+10 pp
48.0%
38.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
21.2%
Draw
30.8%
Ecuador
48%
Match Confidence
82
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CIV-8 pp
21.2%
29.3%
Draw-2 pp
30.8%
32.5%
ECU+10 pp
48.0%
38.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.7%
0 - 014.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 210.7%
1 - 09.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CIV
0.73
Total
1.98
ECU
1.25
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.7%
Over 2.5 goals31.9%
Under 2.5 goals68.1%
Both teams to score37.7%
CIV clean sheet28.6%
ECU clean sheet47.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.7%
0 - 014.3%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 210.7%
1 - 09.6%
Match Confidence
82
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
21.2%
Draw
30.8%
Ecuador
48%
Key Insight
Ecuador are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Ivory Coast 1.3–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Ivory Coast are projected to generate 0.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ecuador are projected for 1.3 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Ivory Coast.