Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Germany7–1Curacao
Our pre-kickoff call — result: GER win
75%
GER●
16%
Draw
10%
CUW
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
73.7%
Draw
15.8%
Curacao
10.5%
Key Insight
Germany are favoured at 74%, projected to outscore Curacao 2.8–0.4 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 013.3%
3 - 012.3%
1 - 09.4%
4 - 08.6%
1 - 17.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 80-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GER-20 pp
73.7%
93.3%
Draw+12 pp
15.8%
4.3%
CUW+8 pp
10.5%
2.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
73.7%
Draw
15.8%
Curacao
10.5%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 80-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GER-20 pp
73.7%
93.3%
Draw+12 pp
15.8%
4.3%
CUW+8 pp
10.5%
2.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 013.3%
3 - 012.3%
1 - 09.4%
4 - 08.6%
1 - 17.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
GER
2.40
Total
2.96
CUW
0.56
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.3%
Over 2.5 goals58.2%
Under 2.5 goals41.8%
Both teams to score36.0%
GER clean sheet58.0%
CUW clean sheet12.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Curacao Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 013.3%
3 - 012.3%
1 - 09.4%
4 - 08.6%
1 - 17.3%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 80-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
73.7%
Draw
15.8%
Curacao
10.5%
Key Insight
Germany are favoured at 74%, projected to outscore Curacao 2.8–0.4 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Germany are projected to generate 2.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Curacao are projected for 0.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Germany.