Full time✗ Model's call missed
Germany1–2Ecuador
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ECU win
40%
GER
32%
Draw
28%
ECU●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
36.1%
Draw
31.7%
Ecuador
32.2%
Key Insight
Germany are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore Ecuador 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 013.6%
1 - 013.3%
0 - 112.3%
2 - 07.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GER-23 pp
36.1%
58.9%
Draw+11 pp
31.7%
20.7%
ECU+12 pp
32.2%
20.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
36.1%
Draw
31.7%
Ecuador
32.2%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GER-23 pp
36.1%
58.9%
Draw+11 pp
31.7%
20.7%
ECU+12 pp
32.2%
20.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 013.6%
1 - 013.3%
0 - 112.3%
2 - 07.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
GER
1.05
Total
2.03
ECU
0.98
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals33.2%
Under 2.5 goals66.8%
Both teams to score41.3%
GER clean sheet37.5%
ECU clean sheet34.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 013.6%
1 - 013.3%
0 - 112.3%
2 - 07.2%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
36.1%
Draw
31.7%
Ecuador
32.2%
Key Insight
Germany are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore Ecuador 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Germany are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ecuador are projected for 1.0 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Germany.