FIFA World Cup 2026Sat Jun 20 · 16:00 EDT · BMO Field, Toronto
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Germany2–1Ivory Coast
Our pre-kickoff call — result: GER win
54%
GER●
28%
Draw
18%
CIV
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
52.3%
Draw
27.8%
Ivory Coast
19.9%
Key Insight
Germany are favoured at 52%, projected to outscore Ivory Coast 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.7%
1 - 112.8%
2 - 011.1%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Ivory Coast Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GER-15 pp
52.3%
67.4%
Draw+8 pp
27.8%
19.6%
CIV+7 pp
19.9%
13.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
52.3%
Draw
27.8%
Ivory Coast
19.9%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GER-15 pp
52.3%
67.4%
Draw+8 pp
27.8%
19.6%
CIV+7 pp
19.9%
13.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.7%
1 - 112.8%
2 - 011.1%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Ivory Coast Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
GER
1.46
Total
2.26
CIV
0.80
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.7%
Over 2.5 goals39.3%
Under 2.5 goals60.7%
Both teams to score42.8%
GER clean sheet45.0%
CIV clean sheet23.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Ivory Coast Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.7%
1 - 112.8%
2 - 011.1%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
52.3%
Draw
27.8%
Ivory Coast
19.9%
Key Insight
Germany are favoured at 52%, projected to outscore Ivory Coast 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Germany are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ivory Coast are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Germany.