Full time✗ Model's call missed
Paraguay1–0Turkey
Our pre-kickoff call — result: PAR win
32%
PAR●
31%
Draw
38%
TUR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
34.3%
Draw
30.9%
Turkey
34.8%
Key Insight
Turkey are favoured at 35%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.1–1.1 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 012.4%
0 - 112.2%
1 - 012%
1 - 27.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
PAR+9 pp
34.3%
25.2%
Draw+2 pp
30.9%
28.9%
TUR-11 pp
34.8%
45.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
34.3%
Draw
30.9%
Turkey
34.8%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
PAR+9 pp
34.3%
25.2%
Draw+2 pp
30.9%
28.9%
TUR-11 pp
34.8%
45.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 012.4%
0 - 112.2%
1 - 012%
1 - 27.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
PAR
1.06
Total
2.13
TUR
1.07
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals35.9%
Under 2.5 goals64.1%
Both teams to score43.7%
PAR clean sheet34.2%
TUR clean sheet34.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 012.4%
0 - 112.2%
1 - 012%
1 - 27.2%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
34.3%
Draw
30.9%
Turkey
34.8%
Key Insight
Turkey are favoured at 35%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.1–1.1 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Paraguay are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Turkey are projected for 1.1 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Paraguay.