Full time✗ Model's call missed
Australia2–0Turkey
Our pre-kickoff call — result: AUS win
28%
AUS●
30%
Draw
42%
TUR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
33.5%
Draw
30.5%
Turkey
36%
Key Insight
Turkey are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore Australia 1.1–1.1 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 111.9%
0 - 011.7%
1 - 011.4%
1 - 27.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUS+16 pp
33.5%
17.7%
Draw+4 pp
30.5%
26.1%
TUR-20 pp
36.0%
56.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
33.5%
Draw
30.5%
Turkey
36%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUS+16 pp
33.5%
17.7%
Draw+4 pp
30.5%
26.1%
TUR-20 pp
36.0%
56.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 111.9%
0 - 011.7%
1 - 011.4%
1 - 27.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
AUS
1.07
Total
2.19
TUR
1.12
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals37.6%
Under 2.5 goals62.4%
Both teams to score45.1%
AUS clean sheet32.5%
TUR clean sheet34.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 111.9%
0 - 011.7%
1 - 011.4%
1 - 27.5%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
33.5%
Draw
30.5%
Turkey
36%
Key Insight
Turkey are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore Australia 1.1–1.1 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Australia are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Turkey are projected for 1.1 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Australia.