Full time✗ Model's call missed
Australia0–0Paraguay
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
34%
AUS
32%
Draw●
35%
PAR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
33.1%
Draw
32.1%
Paraguay
34.8%
Key Insight
Paraguay are favoured at 35%, projected to outscore Australia 1.0–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.2%
0 - 014%
0 - 113.1%
1 - 012.7%
0 - 26.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUS+11 pp
33.1%
21.8%
Draw-7 pp
32.1%
39.6%
PAR-4 pp
34.8%
38.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
33.1%
Draw
32.1%
Paraguay
34.8%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUS+11 pp
33.1%
21.8%
Draw-7 pp
32.1%
39.6%
PAR-4 pp
34.8%
38.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.2%
0 - 014%
0 - 113.1%
1 - 012.7%
0 - 26.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
AUS
0.99
Total
2.01
PAR
1.02
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.2%
Over 2.5 goals32.7%
Under 2.5 goals67.3%
Both teams to score40.9%
AUS clean sheet35.9%
PAR clean sheet37.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.2%
0 - 014%
0 - 113.1%
1 - 012.7%
0 - 26.9%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
33.1%
Draw
32.1%
Paraguay
34.8%
Key Insight
Paraguay are favoured at 35%, projected to outscore Australia 1.0–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Australia are projected to generate 1.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Paraguay are projected for 1.0 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Australia.