FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jun 25 · 19:00 PDT · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Full time✗ Model's call missed
United States2–3Turkey
Our pre-kickoff call — result: TUR win
48%
USA
27%
Draw
25%
TUR●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
36%
Draw
27.5%
Turkey
36.4%
Key Insight
Turkey are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore United States 1.3–1.3 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
0 - 19.2%
1 - 09.2%
1 - 28.1%
2 - 18.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-9 pp
36.0%
45.5%
Draw+3 pp
27.5%
24.6%
TUR+7 pp
36.4%
29.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
36%
Draw
27.5%
Turkey
36.4%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-9 pp
36.0%
45.5%
Draw+3 pp
27.5%
24.6%
TUR+7 pp
36.4%
29.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
0 - 19.2%
1 - 09.2%
1 - 28.1%
2 - 18.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
USA
1.29
Total
2.60
TUR
1.30
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.1%
Over 2.5 goals48.1%
Under 2.5 goals51.9%
Both teams to score53.5%
USA clean sheet27.1%
TUR clean sheet27.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Turkey Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
0 - 19.2%
1 - 09.2%
1 - 28.1%
2 - 18.1%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
36%
Draw
27.5%
Turkey
36.4%
Key Insight
Turkey are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore United States 1.3–1.3 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
United States are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Turkey are projected for 1.3 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours United States.