FIFA World Cup 2026Fri Jun 12 · 18:00 PDT · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Full time✗ Model's call missed
United States4–1Paraguay
Our pre-kickoff call — result: USA win
26%
USA●
31%
Draw
43%
PAR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
35.6%
Draw
29%
Paraguay
35.4%
Key Insight
United States are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.2–1.2 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.7%
1 - 010.5%
0 - 110.5%
0 - 09.7%
2 - 17.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-11 pp
35.6%
46.4%
Draw-1 pp
29.0%
29.8%
PAR+12 pp
35.4%
23.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
35.6%
Draw
29%
Paraguay
35.4%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-11 pp
35.6%
46.4%
Draw-1 pp
29.0%
29.8%
PAR+12 pp
35.4%
23.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.7%
1 - 010.5%
0 - 110.5%
0 - 09.7%
2 - 17.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
USA
1.19
Total
2.38
PAR
1.19
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.7%
Over 2.5 goals42.5%
Under 2.5 goals57.5%
Both teams to score49.0%
USA clean sheet30.4%
PAR clean sheet30.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.7%
1 - 010.5%
0 - 110.5%
0 - 09.7%
2 - 17.8%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
35.6%
Draw
29%
Paraguay
35.4%
Key Insight
United States are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.2–1.2 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
United States are projected to generate 1.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Paraguay are projected for 1.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours United States.