FIFA World Cup 2026Fri Jun 19 · 12:00 PDT · Lumen Field, Seattle
Full time✗ Model's call missed
United States2–0Australia
Our pre-kickoff call — result: USA win
35%
USA●
29%
Draw
36%
AUS
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
36.8%
Draw
28.6%
Australia
34.6%
Key Insight
United States are favoured at 37%, projected to outscore Australia 1.3–1.2 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.6%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 19.9%
0 - 09.1%
2 - 18%
Scoreline Distribution
Australia Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-25 pp
36.8%
61.6%
Draw+7 pp
28.6%
22.1%
AUS+18 pp
34.6%
16.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
36.8%
Draw
28.6%
Australia
34.6%
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-25 pp
36.8%
61.6%
Draw+7 pp
28.6%
22.1%
AUS+18 pp
34.6%
16.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.6%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 19.9%
0 - 09.1%
2 - 18%
Scoreline Distribution
Australia Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
USA
1.25
Total
2.45
AUS
1.20
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.6%
Over 2.5 goals44.3%
Under 2.5 goals55.7%
Both teams to score50.5%
USA clean sheet30.0%
AUS clean sheet28.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Australia Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.6%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 19.9%
0 - 09.1%
2 - 18%
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
36.8%
Draw
28.6%
Australia
34.6%
Key Insight
United States are favoured at 37%, projected to outscore Australia 1.3–1.2 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
United States are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Australia are projected for 1.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours United States.