Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Scotland1–0Haiti
Our pre-kickoff call — result: SCO win
54%
SCO●
27%
Draw
19%
HAI
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Scotland
55.2%
Draw
26.2%
Haiti
18.6%
Key Insight
Scotland are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore Haiti 1.6–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 112.2%
2 - 011.4%
0 - 09.5%
2 - 19.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Scotland Goals
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SCO-5 pp
55.2%
60.2%
Draw+4 pp
26.2%
22.6%
HAI+1 pp
18.6%
17.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Scotland
55.2%
Draw
26.2%
Haiti
18.6%
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SCO-5 pp
55.2%
60.2%
Draw+4 pp
26.2%
22.6%
HAI+1 pp
18.6%
17.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 112.2%
2 - 011.4%
0 - 09.5%
2 - 19.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Scotland Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
SCO
1.58
Total
2.40
HAI
0.81
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals43.1%
Under 2.5 goals56.9%
Both teams to score44.9%
SCO clean sheet44.2%
HAI clean sheet20.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Scotland Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 112.2%
2 - 011.4%
0 - 09.5%
2 - 19.2%
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Scotland
55.2%
Draw
26.2%
Haiti
18.6%
Key Insight
Scotland are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore Haiti 1.6–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Scotland are projected to generate 1.6 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Haiti are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Scotland.