Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Morocco4–2Haiti
Our pre-kickoff call — result: MAR win
72%
MAR●
19%
Draw
8%
HAI
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Morocco
74.8%
Draw
17.8%
Haiti
7.4%
Key Insight
Morocco are favoured at 75%, projected to outscore Haiti 2.2–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 014%
3 - 011.4%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 18.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Morocco Goals
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MAR-1 pp
74.8%
75.7%
Draw+2 pp
17.8%
15.8%
HAI-1 pp
7.4%
8.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Morocco
74.8%
Draw
17.8%
Haiti
7.4%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MAR-1 pp
74.8%
75.7%
Draw+2 pp
17.8%
15.8%
HAI-1 pp
7.4%
8.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 014%
3 - 011.4%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 18.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Morocco Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MAR
2.15
Total
2.68
HAI
0.54
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.6%
Over 2.5 goals51.0%
Under 2.5 goals49.0%
Both teams to score37.3%
MAR clean sheet58.3%
HAI clean sheet11.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Morocco Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 014%
3 - 011.4%
2 - 18.4%
1 - 18.2%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Morocco
74.8%
Draw
17.8%
Haiti
7.4%
Key Insight
Morocco are favoured at 75%, projected to outscore Haiti 2.2–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Morocco are projected to generate 2.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Haiti are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Morocco.