Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Morocco1–0Scotland
Our pre-kickoff call — result: MAR win
48%
MAR●
30%
Draw
23%
SCO
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Morocco
55.1%
Draw
27.5%
Scotland
17.4%
Key Insight
Morocco are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore Scotland 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.8%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 012.1%
0 - 011.5%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Scotland Goals
012345+
Morocco Goals
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MAR-3 pp
55.1%
58.0%
Draw+2 pp
27.5%
25.9%
SCO+1 pp
17.4%
16.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Morocco
55.1%
Draw
27.5%
Scotland
17.4%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MAR-3 pp
55.1%
58.0%
Draw+2 pp
27.5%
25.9%
SCO+1 pp
17.4%
16.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.8%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 012.1%
0 - 011.5%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Scotland Goals
012345+
Morocco Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MAR
1.49
Total
2.21
SCO
0.72
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.8%
Over 2.5 goals38.0%
Under 2.5 goals62.0%
Both teams to score40.4%
MAR clean sheet48.6%
SCO clean sheet22.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Scotland Goals
012345+
Morocco Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.8%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 012.1%
0 - 011.5%
2 - 18.7%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Morocco
55.1%
Draw
27.5%
Scotland
17.4%
Key Insight
Morocco are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore Scotland 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Morocco are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Scotland are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Morocco.