Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Brazil3–0Haiti
Our pre-kickoff call — result: BRA win
77%
BRA●
17%
Draw
7%
HAI
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
80.1%
Draw
14.4%
Haiti
5.5%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 80%, projected to outscore Haiti 2.5–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.2%
3 - 012.7%
1 - 012%
4 - 08%
2 - 17.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-6 pp
80.1%
86.3%
Draw+6 pp
14.4%
8.9%
HAI+1 pp
5.5%
4.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
80.1%
Draw
14.4%
Haiti
5.5%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-6 pp
80.1%
86.3%
Draw+6 pp
14.4%
8.9%
HAI+1 pp
5.5%
4.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.2%
3 - 012.7%
1 - 012%
4 - 08%
2 - 17.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BRA
2.43
Total
2.95
HAI
0.52
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.2%
Over 2.5 goals57.8%
Under 2.5 goals42.2%
Both teams to score37.3%
BRA clean sheet59.6%
HAI clean sheet8.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Haiti Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.2%
3 - 012.7%
1 - 012%
4 - 08%
2 - 17.8%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
80.1%
Draw
14.4%
Haiti
5.5%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 80%, projected to outscore Haiti 2.5–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Brazil are projected to generate 2.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Haiti are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Brazil.