Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Brazil3–0Scotland
Our pre-kickoff call — result: BRA win
58%
BRA●
26%
Draw
16%
SCO
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
61.5%
Draw
24.4%
Scotland
14.1%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Scotland 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.2%
2 - 013.3%
1 - 111.2%
0 - 09.6%
2 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Scotland Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Match Confidence
75
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-11 pp
61.5%
72.5%
Draw+6 pp
24.4%
18.0%
SCO+5 pp
14.1%
9.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
61.5%
Draw
24.4%
Scotland
14.1%
Match Confidence
75
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-11 pp
61.5%
72.5%
Draw+6 pp
24.4%
18.0%
SCO+5 pp
14.1%
9.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.2%
2 - 013.3%
1 - 111.2%
0 - 09.6%
2 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Scotland Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BRA
1.70
Total
2.38
SCO
0.68
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.2%
Over 2.5 goals42.8%
Under 2.5 goals57.2%
Both teams to score41.0%
BRA clean sheet50.4%
SCO clean sheet18.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Scotland Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.2%
2 - 013.3%
1 - 111.2%
0 - 09.6%
2 - 19.1%
Match Confidence
75
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
61.5%
Draw
24.4%
Scotland
14.1%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Scotland 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Brazil are projected to generate 1.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Scotland are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Brazil.