Full time✗ Model's call missed
Brazil1–1Morocco
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
42%
BRA
31%
Draw●
27%
MAR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
39.1%
Draw
31.4%
Morocco
29.5%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.1–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
1 - 013.7%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 111.3%
2 - 08%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-18 pp
39.1%
56.8%
Draw+5 pp
31.4%
26.3%
MAR+13 pp
29.5%
16.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
39.1%
Draw
31.4%
Morocco
29.5%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-18 pp
39.1%
56.8%
Draw+5 pp
31.4%
26.3%
MAR+13 pp
29.5%
16.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
1 - 013.7%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 111.3%
2 - 08%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BRA
1.13
Total
2.07
MAR
0.94
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals34.2%
Under 2.5 goals65.8%
Both teams to score41.9%
BRA clean sheet38.9%
MAR clean sheet32.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
1 - 013.7%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 111.3%
2 - 08%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
39.1%
Draw
31.4%
Morocco
29.5%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.1–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Brazil are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Morocco are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Brazil.